ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
On the Research and Development of GRAPES_RAFS
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    Abstract:

    The GRAPES_RAFS (Rapid Analysis and Forecast System) is based on GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model and GRAPES_3DVAR system, running on a high intermittent assimilation cycle to provide high resolution mesoscale analyses and short time numerical weather predication guidance for weather forecasting. The GRAPES_RAFS assimilates radiosonde observation and a lot of observations with high temporal and spatial resolution, such as aircraft, VAD wind profiles, surface station observation data, et al. Herein, the framework and flowchart of GRAPES_RAFS are technically described, and compared with the forecasting products of GRAPES_MESO, the short time nowcasting capability of this system and the critical techniques influencing its forecasting performance are also discussed. The research results show that the GRAPES_RAFS system is effective in providing more accurate short time nowcasting forecasts initialized with recent data than GRAPES_MESO system forecasts. The results also show that, 〖JP2〗high resolution observations, the background error covariance of GRAPES_3DVAR system,〖JP〗 the dynamical framework and physical processes of GRAPES model are keys to GRAPES_RAFS. The short time nowcasting performance of GRAPES_RAFS is a challenging task in the case that the assimilated observation data for GRAPES_RAFS are sparse.

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History
  • Received:January 27,2012
  • Revised:December 06,2012
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 23,2013
  • Published:

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