ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 12 > 2012,38(12):1554-1559. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.12.014 Prev Next
The Development Period Prediction of Winter Wheat Based on Climatic Suitability in North China
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Abstract:
Using the data of daily highest temperature, the lowest temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, soil moisture and winter wheat development period, agrometeorological indexes, and considering the different effects of soil moisture and precipitation on winter wheat different growth stage, the calculation method for winter wheat moisture suitability is established. And the paper further constructs a climate suitability model of winter wheat combined with the calculation methods of winter wheat moisture suitability, temperature suitability and sunshine suitability. Based on the forecasting factor of winter wheat climate suitability, the forecast model of winter wheat development period is established. The simulation results indicate that the average errors between the simulation days from models of different districts and actual days are 1-2 days, the average errors between simulation days from models of different development period and actual days are within 4 days. The forecast and test demonstrate that average errors between simulation days from models of different districts or development periods and actual days are within three days. The results show that the operational applications of these models are possible.
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