ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 12 > 2012,38(12):1538-1545. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.12.012 Prev Next
The Backward Trajectory Simulation of the Planthopper During Migratory Peak in Hubei Province
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Abstract:
Rice planthopper is one of the causes for the great reduction of the yield of rice in Hubei Province. It is a kind of typical climatical moved flying insect pest, its takeoff, flying and settlement are closely related to weather conditions. In this article, the upper air meteorological field data, and the rice planthopper monitoring data under the lamp, are used to analyze the example, using particle track and diffusion and settlement pattern HYSPLIT 4, etc. for exploring the fly path and main source of rice planthopper in Hubei Province. The main conclusions may be drawn as follows: (1) There are five paths of rice planthopper having moved in Hubei Province, i.e. the southwest path, the south path, the southeast path, the east path and the northeast path. (2) In spring and summer, the southwest path is the main path, with its proportion of 47%, followed by the south path and the southeast path. (3) In autumn, the northeast path is the main path, with its proportion of 30%, followed by the southwest path, being 23% of the total number. (4) In comparison with spring and summer, in autumn the proportion of southwest path is decreased by 24%, that of northeast path is increased by 22%, that of the east path is increased by 8%, and very few changes in the south path and southeast path. (5) The proportion of the southly path (the sum of the southwest path, the south path and the southeast path) is 80% in spring and summer, and that is 55% in autumn. Compared with spring and summer, autumn has a decrease of 25%. (6) No matter whether it is spring and summer, or autumn, the southwest path is the most impact on Hubei Province, and influence on the southern part is greater than the northern part. The influence of the northeast path in autumn is greater than that in spring and summer. The impacts of south path and southeast path on the Jianghan Plain are greater than the others. (7) In theory， the source area of rice planthopper is 19°-25°N, 90°-120°E, with an east west long axis and a north south short axis, a rectangular area of approximately 3300 km×660 km Countries Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Philippines are the initial sources of rice planthopper, and regions Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, etc., are the secondary sources or the third class insect sources. Combining the forward trajectory simulation by numerical prediction field and the comprehensive analysis of insect source and target areas, we can carrry out the planthopper moving weather forecasting, and this work still needs further developing in operational tests.
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