ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 12 > 2012,38(12):1508-1514. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.12.008 Prev Next
The Application of Dynamical Statistical Method to 24 h Thunderstorm Forecast
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Abstract:
Based on the T213 numerical forecast products and many convective parameters calculated, the 24 h thunderstorm potential prediction formulas are set up for 690 national meteorological stations from April to September by using event probability regression method. At the same time based on the TS score maximum principle, the critical probability of occurrence of thunderstorm forecast is defined and the forecasts for April-September 2010 are focussed. The results show that, (1) the convective parameters based on T213 output product calculation have clearly physical meaning, and are highly related with the occurrence of thunderstorms, making significant contributions to the forecast formulas. (2) Thunderstorm potential prediction formulas are stronger indicators to regional forecasts of thunderstorms, especially to lightning striking areas. (3) The average TS score for 690 stations is 0.24.
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