ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 10 > 2012,38(10):1238-1246. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.10.010 Prev Next
Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2011
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Abstract:
Operational positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific in 2011 are evaluated. The evaluations are performed on the TC’s positioning, the deterministic track and intensity forecasts, and the track ensemble prediction. The results show that the TC average operational positioning error is 24.9 km. The average errors of domestic integrated track forecast in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h are 112.6 km, 209.7 km and 333.6 km, respectively, which are 121.4 km, 220.1 km and 380.5 km for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and better than those of 2010. However, the results also show that the NWP intensity forecasting capability is still weaker than objective methods. ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) shows the best performance among the 7 EPS methods, followed by NCEP EPS, occasionally, these two systems have near and even beyond subjective track forecast level. CMA GEFS EPS was located at the middle level.
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