ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 4 > 2012,38(4):425-431. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.04.006 Prev Next
The RealTime MJO Monitoring and Prediction Operation in NCC
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Abstract:
Based on a popular MJO monitoring method designed by Wheeler and Hendon, a realtime MJO monitoring index and associated computing method were designed, and then, an MJO monitoring and prediction operation system was built up in National Climate Center (NCC). The monitoring results from NCC are much consistent with that from the foreign operational departments (e.g. Australia Bureau of Meteorology). Monitoring results can give a relative good description of the MJO’s intensity and propagation. The realtime MJO prediction operation is also set up using two statistical forecast models. Analysis on the prediction skill showed that two statistical methods give a skillful forecast within 15 days. Lag linear regression model (PCL) has better forecast skill than autoregressive model (ARM).
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