ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 38 Issue 4 > 2012,38(4):402-410. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.04.003 Prev Next
Analysis of Potential Predictability for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature in Yunnan
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Abstract:
With 42year climate data in Yunnan, a lowfrequency white noise extension method and a variance analysis method are used to estimate climate noise variance and potential predictabilities of the seasonal rainfall and temperature in Yunnan Province. The results show that, (1) the climate noise variance of seasonal precipitation in Yunnan increases when the seasonal precipitation increases and is mainly decreasing from south to north in terms of spatial distribution, the climate noise variance of summer rainfall is significantly greater than that in other seasons. However, climate noise variance of seasonal temperature, increases with the decreasing seasonal temperature and is mainly decreasing from east to west for spring and winter in terms of spatial distribution. While increasing from south to north for summer and autumn, the climate noise variance of winter temperature is significantly greater than that in other seasons. (2) Both potential predictabilities of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan also have the pronounced changes in season and space, the potential predictabilities of precipitation and temperature in spring are significantly higher than those in other seasons while in summer are significantly smaller than those in other seasons. In spring and autumn, the potential predictability of precipitation over the western is higher than that in the eastern, but in the southern is higher than that in northern in winter. As for seasonal temperature, except in summer， western is higher than eastern. (3) Both monsoon and the cold air may play an important role in affecting the potential predictability of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province.
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