Studies on Strong Convective Weather Forecast Method in Southwestern Fujian Province Based on CINRAD/SA Radar Products
By using the radar of Longyan CINRAD/SA from 2003 to 2008 and Tlnp data， the environmental conditions of historical hail in southeastern Fujian and thunderstorm and gale weather in Western Fujian were analyzed and the CINRAD/SA products’ discriminant indices of historical hail weather and thunderstorm and gale weather in Southeastern Fujian were statistically established. Utilizing discriminant equations, CINRAD/SA products and Tlnp data, we carry out the strong convective weather nowcasting and the research of warning methods. First, we set up Fisher discriminant equations, which are mainly used to identify hail weather. Then we set up the second Fisher discriminant equations, which are mainly used to identify thunderstorm and gale weather. Through the hindcast of historical process and the 2009 trial forecast, it is shown that the forecast accuracy for hail weather system in southwestern Fujian is higher than that of the thunderstorm and gale weather in western Fujian. Using SCIT (storm cell identification and tracking) algorithm, the hail forecasting and validation were statistically tested, results showed that the SCIT method forecasts accurately and it can be used to forecast the storm moving speed and direction.