ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Research on Winter Precipitation Types’Discrimination Criterion in Eastern China
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Abstract:
Based on 5 years’surface observation and sounding data in eastern China Region, a set of discrimination criterion is suggested after statistically analyzing temperature and thickness for different precipitation types. It is found that: Discrimination criterion in eastern China is different from that of western Europe because of climate factors； Applicability of North America’s criterion is not good to eastern China; Criterion combining temperature with thickness has a better behavior. The suggested criterion has a fairly good performance to rain and snow, with TS scores of 0.91 and 0.73 respectively. A compatible TS score of sleet can reach 0.57 too. With a FAR (false alarm ratio) of 0.70-0.80, the criterion for freezing rain (ice pellet) is not satisfying, only turns out a TS score of 0.25. This poor behavior is attributable to insufficiency of discrimination factors. Due to complex mechanism of freezing rain (ice pellet), more detailed vertical profile information and local climate factors must be taken into account when developing its discrimination criterion. And local forecasters’experience can still play an important role in forecasting this precipitation type. Results from this paper can be a good reference for operational work and numerical model post-process in eastern China.
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