ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Construction and Case Verification on Doppler Radar Ensemble Extrapolation of CrossCorrelation
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Abstract:
This study constructed a method of ensemble linear cross-correlation and conducted Doppler radar echo extrapolation. The linear cross-correlation algorithm can obtain the echo distribution based on the previous two echo times. As a result, the ensemble linear cross-correlation technique is more close to the observed and has been taken into account the nonlinear characteristics, which involve the evolution, moving speed and direction, and deformation during the movement of multi-time echoes. According to the methods of ensemble linear cross correlation and least squares fitting, the echo extrapolation of two rainstorm processes has been carried out. By comparison, the echo distribution derived from the ensemble cross-correlation is more realistic. Further analysis of precipitation evaluation indicates that the echo movement derived by ensemble linear cross-correlation is more similar to the observed, and gets better 1 h accumulated precipitation forecast. Therefore, the ensemble cross-correlation extrapolation technique has certain practical value in nowcasting.
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