ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 12 > 2011,37(12):1553-1559. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.12.011 Prev Next
Study on Remote Correlation Between Summer Monthly High Temperature Days in Jiangsu and West Pacific SST and Its LongTerm Prediction Models
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Abstract:
The occurrence of summer high temperature is the comprehensive reflection of joint actions of several factors， in which atmospheric circulation background plays an important role in hightemperature events. According to the study of airsea interaction, there are maybe some feedback relations between SST change and atmospheric circulation, which determine the certain predictability of land temperature using SST. Based on this principle, with the 30year (1978—2007) West Pacific SST, and the numbers of high temperature days of different time, the strong signal sea area related to average high temperature days of different regions of Jiangsu is explored by using regional average method, field correlation analysis and optimization correlation processing technology. Setting West Pacific SST as the longterm forecast factor, the longterm forecast models of summer monthly high temperature days in different areas of Jiangsu are established. These models all pass through the significance level of α=0.01, and the effects of fitting are good. Experiments of practical forecast are carried out with good effects, and can be put into meteorological operations. The study has important guiding significance for service on the longterm forecast of high temperature and high temperature disasters in Jiangsu Province.
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