ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 12 > 2011,37(12):1498-1503. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.12.004 Prev Next
The Application Analysis of MODE Method to the Rainfall Forecast Test
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Abstract:
Based on the MODE method in the MET packet of WRF, the forecasting abilities of the numerical precipitation products of the BJRUC model were objectively verified. Using hourly rainfall observations of automatic weather stations in the flood season from 2008 to 2009, heavy rainfall examples and its main precipitation period were selected, in which the accumulated precipitation of more than two stations is larger than 50 mm in three hours, then according to their circulation patterns and influence systems, these cases are divided into three types, the west coming trough, the lowpressure vortex, and the shear line. The emphasis of verification is put on the main periods in the heavy rainfall and the QPE products of the radar are regarded as live data. The results show that the misses of precipitation from BJRUC model are much more than false alarm, the forecast rainfall intensity is weaker than observation and the BJRUC model is not good at forecasting precipitation by the west coming trough. This work is aimed at providing references for application and improvement of the BJRUC model.
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