ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 10 > 2011,37(10):1320-1328. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.10.017 Prev Next
Precision Evaluation and Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Typhoons over the Western North Pacific in 2010
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Abstract:
According to the Typhoon Operation and Service Requirements, forecast errors of the 14 typhoon cases in 2010 (1001-1014) were evaluated and analyzed. Generally, the average distance errors of domestic operational stations in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts are 110.0 km (1392 times), 210.6 km (945 times) and 322.4 km (364 times) respectively. Comparing with the results of the corresponding forecasting in 2009, the average errors of typhoon track forecast in different forecast time length in 2010 are decreased in different degrees. By the homogeneous comparison between different numerical models, ECMWF dominates the best track forecast performance and the Japanese model (JAPN) is the second best in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts. And these two models show some superiority comparing with the domestic models in the typhoon track forecasts. Further analysis of the homogeneous comparison to ECMWF shows that domestic numerical models have more obvious difference in the typhoon movement direction forecast while JAPN shows larger difference in the forecast of movement speed. On the other hand, the forecast difference between the domestic models and ECMWF model seems much larger in the initial forecast time (12-24 h) than that of the later forecast time (36-48 h). In other words, the forecast differences between them are gradually reduced with the extension of forecast time.
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