ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 10 > 2011,37(10):1196-1205. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.10.002 Prev Next
The Analysis and Discussion on Operational Forecast Errors of Super Typhoon Muifa (1109)
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Abstract:
During operational forecasting and service for Super Typhoon Muifa (1109) in Central Meteorological Observatory, there are some errors in its track, intensity and precipitation forecasting. The forecast errors partly caused a passive situation in its operational forecasting and service. In this paper, conventional and unconventional meteorological data, operational numerical prediction models, NCEP reanalysis data (1°×1°) and coupled oceanatmosphere model of National Meteorological Centre (NMC) are used to make a preliminary analysis on these forecast errors. The results show that: (1) The track forecast error for Muifa is mainly attributed to the optimistic estimation of the westward movement toward the Yellow Sea of the subtropical high near Japan, while westerly trough and binary typhoons have an important influence on the northward movement of Muifa. And the northeastward movement of Typhoon Merbok (1110) at the east of Muifa has a certain sense of direction for the southward withdraw of the subtropical high. (2) When there are big differences between operational numerical prediction models, it is the key how to better use ensemble and consensus forecast products for further improving the accuracy of typhoon track prediction. (3) The intensity prediction error of Muifa is mainly due to the onesided consideration about the impact of sea surface temperature on typhoon intensity change, while ignoring the influences of dry air and environmental vertical wind shear. (4) In addition to be concerned with the forecast errors of the track and intensity, the precipitation forecast error for Muifa is also related to the underestimation on the character〖CM（46〗istics of dry typhoon about Muifa and the weak interaction between the low and middle latitude〖CM）〗systems.
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