ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The NWP Models’ Evaluation Based on Different Weather Type in Hebei
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Abstract:
Using conventional weather charts, rainfall observations and precipitation forecasts made by T213 and T639 (China), MM5 (Hebei), JMA (Japan) and DWD (Germany) numerical models, the TS (threat scores) has been done by interpolating the five models’ precipitation forecasts into the 142 observation stations of Hebei. It is verified by the mutilmodel precipitation forecasts for different synoptic types from July 2009 to June 2010. The results indicate that, TS is closely related with numerical model and area, that the higher score corresponds some precipitation systems, such as shear type, subtropical high type and trough type, and that the accuracy of heavy and torrential rain under the first two type weather systems is higher than other types. The comprehensive evaluation of five models’ precipitation prediction, is that (1) the effects of DWD, T639 and JMA models are better than other models for light and moderate rainfall conditions; and (2) the effects of T639, MM5 and T213 models are better than other models for the heavy and torrential rainfall conditions.
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