ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Application of Statistical Downscaling Method to Forecasts in Monthly Scale
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Abstract:
Using a statistical downscaling method （SDSM） we simulated and evaluated the changes of minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as precipitation during 47 years (1961-2007) in Beijing, and on this basis, we predicted the weather during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and during the 2009 National Day. The results show that, the SDSM has the ability of simulating temperature and precipitation. From the point of interannual simulation variability, the SDSM simulated temperature is better than precipitation, in which the simulated mean minimum (maximum) temperature is better than the simulated lowest (highest) temperature extremes. Meanwhile, the simulated annual maximum (minimum) temperatures are overall lower than the observed indicating there are systematic errors which show less ability to simulate extreme temperatures. The SDSMsimulated precipitation on the whole is less than the measured values, and the large values in the simulation of precipitation are even more serious. Weather forecasts during the Beijing Olympic Games and the National Day indicated that the predicted values for maximum and minimum temperatures, and precipitation are lower than the actual values, but the heating and cooling processes can be accurately predicted by the SDSM.
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