ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
+Advanced Search
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 6 > 2011,37(6):649-658. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.6.001 Prev Next

Developing a UserOriented Interactive Forecast System

  • Article
  • Figures
  • Metrics
  • Preview PDF
  • Reference
  • Related
  • Cited by
  • Materials
    Abstract:
    A framework of dynamic useroriented interactive forecast system is proposed. The newgeneration forecast system contains an initial userend module for configuring the dynamic forecast target, the physical predictive, downscaling components, userend professional models, and a useroriented assessing module in association with decisionmaking at the userend. A case study involving application of current global ensemble forecasts (TIGGE) of rainfall for hydrological users in Linyi, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China, is conducted in order to highlight interactive involvement of the userend information during forecast process. An iteratively selfimproving forecast system, involving changing decisionmaking information throughout a flood season, a changing threshold for floodleading rainfall depending on previous weather and concurrent hydrological conditions, and a dynamic useroriented assessing process of concurrent skill and uncertainty of the prediction, is built up. It is demonstrated how a forecast of floodleading rainfall leads to a better warning signal for the user with interactive involvement of the userend than without.

    Keywords:


    Project Supported:
    Clc Number:

WeChat

Mobile website

® 2025 All Rights Reserved
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd. ISSN:1000-0526   CN:11-2282/P