ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 37 Issue 5 > 2011,37(5):633-638. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.05.017 Prev Next
The Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec. 2010 to Feb. 2011
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Abstract:
The performance of medium range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from December 2010 to February 2011. The results show that the three models are capable of predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation and temperature of 850 hPa successfully. In northern China, EC model has better performance than T639 and JP models in terms of predicting temperature at 850 hPa, whereas in southern China standard deviations for JP model are smallest. In southern China, correlation coefficients between initial fields and forecasts of 850 hPa temperature for the three models are all lower than those in northern China. In forecasting of south branch trough, the forecasts of JP model are stronger than its initial fields and the performance of EC model is the best. The models all predict the weak surface anticyclone, and for T639 and EC models the errors are mainly located in the northwest of the anticyclone.
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