ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Interpretation and Use of T213 and T639 Output Products on the Lightning Potential Forecast in Henan
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Abstract:
The thunderstorm data from surface observation station from 1960 to 2005 are used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of thunderstorm activities in Henan. According to the activity characteristics and the environmental conditions of the thunderstorm， plenty of the atmospheric dynamical and thermal parameters are calculated based on the numerical products from T213 and T639. Through the diagnostic analyses and correlative analyses， 5 parameters with better relation to the ground flash are picked as forecasting indexes， that is， the convective stability index， the pseudo equivalent potential temperature on 850 hPa， and the vertical wind shear between 400 hPa to 850 hPa and so on. Then， the ADTD ground flash monitoring data and the numerical models T213 and T639 output data， are utilized to establish the model for the lightning potential forecast. The potential forecast method is used in the operation during the flood period from 2008 to 2009， and the assessment result shows that the lightning potential forecasting method based on the numerical data of T213 and T639 can provide objective and quantitative reference and basis for the lightning occurring area forecast of Henan and the forecasting effects for the trough and shear pattern are both good based on models T213 and T639 to different weather patterns.
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