ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Pre-Evaluation Method of Disastrous Weather Progress Based on MultiFactor Comprehensive Index
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Abstract:
Preevaluation method of disastrous weather progress based on multifactor comprehensive index is put forward，and proposes that estimate should contain a degree of severe weather progress and disaster impact in two parts. It takes process of low temperature, raining and snowing, icing in Hubei Province in the beginning of 2008 for example. Firstly, the multifactor comprehensive index quantitatively describes the process of low temperature, raining and snowing. The comprehensive indexes of historical sleet process are calculated with meteorological data of every observation station in Hubei. And the index of most seriously process per year forms a historical sequence. The recurrence of the annual index and the index of different recurrent are computed with Gumbel extreme distribution. Rank of yearly low temperature and sleet process is assessed. Secondly, progressive daily comprehensive index of sleet process in 2008 is calculated with multiple meteorological factors. By comparing with the rank and the recurrence period of the comprehensive index, the process in 2008 was evaluated. Finally, by analogy of comprehensive index, historical disaster scenario analysis and short and medium range weather forecasts, the progress to future development degree can be preevaluated. Different combination of multiple meteorological factors can be used in the analysis character of disaster.
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