ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The Favorable Ｅnvironment Ｃharacteristics and the Ｐotential Ｆorecast of Lightning in Zhengzhou
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Abstract:
Based on the observed thunderstorm data of Zhengzhou, the climatic characteristics of lightning are analyzed. And based on the sounding data from 2004 to 2006， the environment parameters such as Sweat index， the best lifting index， the 850 hPa pseudoequivalent potential temperature and so on are calculated. The correlations between the single environment parameter and lightning weather in Zhengzhou， as well as correlations between compound parameters and lightning weather have been studied respectively. The result shows that: (1) the single environment parameter has good relationship to the lightning activity when taking value in some extent， but can not reflect the lightning characteristics totally. (2) Multiparameters can reflect the characteristics of lightning activity to some extent. The equation of lightning probability potential forecast is constructed by using multidimensional linear regression， and the significance test of α=0.05 is passed. Using the lightning observed data， the operational results from June to August in 2008 are assessed，and the TS score of the probability forecast reaches 63.6%. The method provides the objective and quantitative reference to the forecast of lightning in Zhengzhou.
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