ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification of TC Track Forecasting Based on ECMWF Mean Sea Level Pressure Fields
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Abstract:
The cubic spline interpolation method is applied to make TC （Tropical Cyclone） track and intensity forecasting based on ECMWF (European Center for Mediumrange Weather Forecasts) daily mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields from 2004 to 2007, and errors are calculated. Compared with subjective TC track forecasting by JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) and CMO (Central Meteorological Office), the JTWC outperforms the other three for leading time within 72 hours, followed by JMA, and ECMWF is left behind among the four centers, while ECMWF does better than JTWC for 96 h and 120 h TC track forecasting. ECMWF provides higher pressure values up to 15-20 hPa than the observed for 24-120 h forecasting. Results based on the 20 BT initial fields display no differences from those of the 08 BT initial fields for 24-48 h forecasting, but are better than those of 08 BT for 72-120 h forecasting.
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