ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The Application of YunGuiChuanYu Geological Disaster Forecast System Based on the WRF
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Abstract:
By using the extensive theory， the YunnanGuizhouSichuanChongqing region’s geological disaster forecast system was built up. The macroscale model of WRF provides the precipitation forecasting for geological disaster forecast system. The probability forecast of geological disaster was produced. The system forecasts the probability of disaster on the lattice and then releases it in grade. Some localized tests have been done. The results show that the macroscale numerical model WRF has some certain forecasting capability.The forecasting capability of WRF model for long duration and regional rainstorm is better， and then WRF can provide good application service for geological disaster forecast. During 2 to 5 July 2007, a series of geological disasters took place in eastern Sichuan Basin. The forecasting results showed that the geological disaster system could forecast the disasters well. Different types of rainfall, which caused the geological disasters, could be responded well and the prediction accuracy in July was better. The system has some certain effect.
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