ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Diagnostic Analysis and Forecasting System of the Severe Convective Weather in Henan Province
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Abstract:
Severe convection is a difficult problem in the weather forecast. For the purpose of increasing the forecasting ability of severe convective weather, especially the local severe convective weather, we have calculated lots of dynamical and thermal parameters by using the analysis model of meteorological observing data from 1995 to 2004 in Henan Province. By statistic and diagnostic analyses we chose better atmospheric dynamical or thermal parameters of forecasting ability and indexes as severe convective forecasting predictors, and then established a forecasting equation by using weighted integrating. We applied computer technology to realize autocollecting data, calculating physical parameters, distinguishing threshold value of predictor and operating diagnostic forecasting equation to output forecast conclusions by means of MICAPS figure at last. Based on these we have built the forecasting system of local severe convective weather of Henan. This system has offered a scientific and objective reference for the forecasters and gotten quite perfect predicting effect in the operational running in the latest two years, thus lifted the forecasting ability of severe convective weather in Henan.
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