ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
owcasting Study of Severe Convective Weather
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Abstract:
The forecasting equations of severe convective weather were built using the physical variables obtained from Model MM5 and radiosonde data during 2003 to 2007, by the ways of making the statistic space distribution with location of severe convection and collocating parameters．By considering the seasonal variation characteristics of the factors， potential forecasts of severe convection and location are made in the future 0-6 h and 0-12 h．The results show that the skill of potential forecast is higher during March to June than July to September, and regional than nonregional． The method is of good instructive sense to forecast severe convective weather of hail, disastrous gust and so on, although some False Alarm Rate events are produced.
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