ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts in View of Public Criticism
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Abstract:
An example of public criticism about the accuracy of TV weather forecasting was represented and analyzed. What can meteorologists learn from it to better serve public and endusers on a solid scientific basis? Given the chaotic nature of atmospheric system and imperfect observations and numerical models, it is scientifically impossible to predict the weather in 100% accuracy. How to evaluate weather forecasts is also problematic and confusing in many ways. Reform is needed in both the ways of producing and providing weather forecast information. A forecast without explicitly describing quantitative uncertainty information is incomplete. Inclusion of forecast uncertainty can, instead, maximize the economical value of a forecast and satisfy the needs for a wider range of users. It is time to quantitatively communicate forecast uncertainty to weather, climate, water and any kind of environmental prediction. Training and education to forecasters, endusers and public is the key to the success of this revolutionary transition from a deterministic to a stochastic point of view about weather forecasting.
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