ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts in View of Public Criticism
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    An example of public criticism about the accuracy of TV weather forecasting was represented and analyzed. What can meteorologists learn from it to better serve public and endusers on a solid scientific basis? Given the chaotic nature of atmospheric system and imperfect observations and numerical models, it is scientifically impossible to predict the weather in 100% accuracy. How to evaluate weather forecasts is also problematic and confusing in many ways. Reform is needed in both the ways of producing and providing weather forecast information. A forecast without explicitly describing quantitative uncertainty information is incomplete. Inclusion of forecast uncertainty can, instead, maximize the economical value of a forecast and satisfy the needs for a wider range of users. It is time to quantitatively communicate forecast uncertainty to weather, climate, water and any kind of environmental prediction. Training and education to forecasters, endusers and public is the key to the success of this revolutionary transition from a deterministic to a stochastic point of view about weather forecasting. 

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:August 04,2009
  • Revised:October 15,2009
  • Adopted:
  • Online:
  • Published:
Article QR Code

WeChat

Mobile website