ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
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Abstract:
The GRAPES_MESO15km, MM5 and BJRUC (rapid assimilation forecast update cycle s ystem of Beijing) were used in the meteorological services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The prediction qualities of 24h quantitative precipitation fore cast products of these models were examined in detail. Firstly, some statistics were calculated, such as the correlation coefficient, TS, FAR, RMSE etc. Then, b y use of the multiple regression method, the integration test to the precipitatio n forecast products of multiple models was taken. The results show that GRAPES_M ESO15km model has a good forecasting performance in the aspect of forecasts for light rain and raining or not, while RUC has a good forecasting capability to the moderate and greater rain. The verification results have a good reference value for the futu re refinement precipitation forecast in Beijing.
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