ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast  Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
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    Abstract:

    The GRAPES_MESO15km, MM5 and BJRUC (rapid assimilation forecast update cycle s ystem of Beijing) were used in the meteorological services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The prediction qualities of 24h quantitative precipitation fore cast products of these models were examined in detail. Firstly, some statistics were calculated, such as the correlation coefficient, TS, FAR, RMSE etc. Then, b y use of the multiple regression method, the integration test to the precipitatio n forecast products of multiple models was taken. The results show that GRAPES_M ESO15km model has a good forecasting performance in the aspect of forecasts for light rain and raining or not, while RUC has a good forecasting capability to the moderate and greater rain. The verification results have a good reference value for the futu re refinement precipitation forecast in Beijing.

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History
  • Received:May 06,2009
  • Revised:June 29,2009
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