ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Factor Selection and Analysis on Application Effects of the Objective Forecast ing Equation
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Abstract:
The humancomputer interaction platform and element forecasting equation of 125 weather stations in Yunnan Province which included the elements of rainfall and temperature were set up by using factor selection and prediction equation. Comp arison tests indicated that vast majority of combined factors were more efficien t than single factor, and the equation forecasting quality by using combined fac tors was better than that by using single factor. The forecasting test results s howed that the precipitation forecasting in dry season had not been available ye t, but the forecasting on light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain in rainy seas on could guide forecasting operation to some extent. For the storm rainfall even ts which reflect the meso or small scale system, the forecasting effects were po or. Therefore, lots ofmeticulous works about factor selection need to be done. Furthermore, temperature prediction was valuable for reference, but it also needs to be improved further.
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