A TrackErrorBased Forecast Method of Tropical Cyclone Track and Striking P robability

doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.9.005

ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P

Home > Archive>Volume 35, Issue 9, 2009 >38-43. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.9.005

A TrackErrorBased Forecast Method of Tropical Cyclone Track and Striking P robability
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                        10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2009.9.005
                    
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Abstract:

To examine the uncertainties of tropical cyclone track forecast, track errors of the comprehensive forecast of National Meteorological Center during 2 004-2007 are used to build a statistical model to produce tropical cyclone strik ing probability. It could be a meaningful reference for issuing typhoon warning. 

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Received:December 31,2008
Revised:April 03,2009
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