ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Drought Risk Assessment in Yunnan Province on the Basis of Information Distr ibution Theory
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Abstract:
By using the conventional meteorological data of 125 stations and dividing 5 dur ations from 1959 to 2005, the drought risk assessment in Yunnan Province was con ducted with the fuzzy information theory and overlimit probability principle. The establishment of synthetic drought index was mainly based on the Thornthwait e drought index and supplemented by selfdefined effective precipitation index. The results showed as follows: the most drought risk period is in January to Ma rch every year; the probability of drought in most area is 60%～100%; the heavy drought probability is 20%～60% with some area of 90%. The drought risk in Nove mber to December is in the second place. The drought probability in most area is 30% ～60%; the heavy drought probability is 20%～60%. There is mostly no drought ris k in June to August. The drought probability is less than 5% in September to Oct ober and there is no heavy drought at all. The drought probability is 10%～20% i n April to the first ten days of June in about half area of Yunnan, 20%～40% in the area of 29%, 40%～80% in the area of 21% and the heavy drought risk is less than 5%.
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