ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Interpretation and Utilization of Numerical Prediction Products in Heavy Rainfall Prediction of the Three Gorges Dam Area in Early Summer
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Abstract:
The good relativity prediction factors are found from the data which include Jap an’s numerical prediction products (FSFE02、FSFE03) of May and June during 1992 to 2001, Yichang singlesounding station, the atmospheric energy and the Three Go rges Dam Area precipitation. The mathematical statistics method based on Fisher discriminate analysis is applied. Heavy precipitation model of the Three Gorge s Dam Area in early summer (May to June) is established to interpretate and util ize the Japan’s numerical prediction products. Through the forecast test during 2002-2007, the forecasting model accuracy and generalization rate are 77% and 89 % respectively, the test result is satisfactory. The forecasting model has a cer tain practicability.
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