ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Sensitive Experiments of Surface Observation Data in Numerical Weather Precipitation over Southwestern China
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    Abstract:

    Numerical experiments about the surface observation dat a assimilation in southwestern China were carried out by use of the GRAPES 3.0 as similation and prediction system. 0-48 h precipitation forecasts of a whole mont h and a heavy rainfall process that occurred in southwestern China in July, 2005 were analyzed. The main conclusions were as follows: Firstly, the influence of s urface observation data assimilation on precipitation forecast varies with the density of surface observation data used and the assimilating information select ed in this region; Secondly, when numerical forecast model takes higher resolution, the results of rainfall predic tion with all surface observation data, are superior to th ose with spare surface observation data from GTS; Thirdly, in complex terrain of so uthwestern China, assimilating wind information of surface observation data can have obvious influence on forecast results, decreases false precipitation ratio and m akes little contribution to raising missing precipitation and TS in contrast wit h not assimilating; Lastly, the scheme of assimilating relative humidity and geopotential height is the best one among these assimilation schemes.

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History
  • Received:February 27,2008
  • Revised:November 04,2008
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