ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Exploration on Ensemble Model of Numerical Forecasting Based on Variableweight Superensemble Method
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Abstract:
The ensemble methods to get a better combined result from l arge quantities of numerical forecast model output products are investigated. S ome variableweig ht decisionmaking models based on superensemble methods are put forward. E vidences suggest that these models are simple, convenient and effective, which c an help forecasters to pick up enough highquality ensemble statistics informat i on from massive numerical products， such as circulation situation, fields of ph ysical elements, precipitation pre diction, cold air prediction, ensemble matrix, map of character. The ensemble m ethods are more perfect and refined, which can dyn amically reflect the abilities of charactering each numerical model. And this h elps to improve the effect and skill of refined numerical weather forecasting for different area and time to some exten t, and provides valuable reference to the operational prediction.
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