ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Precision Assessment for Tropical Cyclone Positioning and Forecasts over the Northwest Pacific in 2007
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Abstract:
Positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific in 2007 are analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The average error of tropi cal cyclone position is less than 25 km. (2) Error of intensity forecasts is sim ilar to that in past years with an average of 3～7m?s-1 and 5～11m?s -1 for 24h and 48h forecasts, respectively. (3) Average error of synthetic track forecasts is 129.8 km (24h) and 215.0 km (48h). Although numerical models are still not as good as synthe tic forecasters in track prediction, the super ensemble method of multiple numer ical models demonstrates positive skill compared with synt hetic forecasts. Statistical methods are still widely used in intensity predicti on.
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