ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 34 Issue 11 > 2008,34(11):15-21. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.11.003 Prev Next
Study on the 2nd Moment Spreadcorrection of Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System
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Abstract:
Based on 2m temperature forecast products from the mesoscale ensemble forecast models of NMC/CMA, a study of the 2nd moment biascorrection was conduct ed to correct the spread. The results show that the skill of various forecast mo dels could be improved, either the mean of ensemble forecast or probabilistic fo recast. The PDF of each forecast member is much more similar with the others. Th e CRPS of the corrected forecast is smaller than the raw forecast. The spread of forecast system is increased reasonably, and closer to the RMS, which means tha t the forecasts are much more reliable. What’s more, the talagrand diagram repr esenting for the reliability of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, the ROC and EV representing for the resolution of the ensemble probabilistic forecast, as well as the BS/BSS score of the ensem ble probabilistic forecast all reveal improvement of corrected ensemble forecast .
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