ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 34 Issue 10 > 2008,34(10):27-33. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.10.004 Prev Next
Analysis on the Difficulties of Typhoon Wipha (0713) Path Forecast
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Abstract:
There is a big discrepancy of typhoon Wipha (0713) tracks forecasts by various models. The forecasts say that the typhoon Wipha (0713) would turn nor thward in the sea of northern Taiwan Island towards bias N in the east of 120°E , but the actual path is in the west of 120°E after landing at the coast of Zhe jiang and Fujian provinces. To understand the reasons for this discrepancy, ever y kind of data is applied to study the possible causes. It shows that (1) the er rors in the numerical prediction product are the main reasons. (2) One ridgetw o troughs situation in the Eurasian 500 hPa height field, the westerly index evo lution from low to high and the subtropical high index periodical enhancement ar e disadvantageous to typhoon Wipha turning bias N in the sea northeast of Taiwan . (3) The terrain impact shoreleft changing and Harbor attraction,as well as dynamic field and thermal field distribution led typhoon Wipha to the west in the northeast sea of Taiwan.
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