ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Refined Forecast Techniques and Related Verification During 2007 Olympic Drilling
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Abstract:
During Beijing 2007 Olympic drilling the refined objective forecast techniques, i.e. theSupport Vector Machine (SVM) and the Half Periodic Function Fit (HPFF), gave a powerful technical support for the venues refined forecasts. Using the five weather elements including temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, wind speed, and 3hour rainfall observati ons at different Olympic Game venues, the 3hour products of SVM and H PFF refined objective forecast and forecaster's forecast for next 3 d ays at five different Olympic Game venues are verified. The results show that: (1) the continuous variables (e.g. temperature, relative humidity , wind speed) HPFF forecast skill is higher than SVM, and for the noncontinuous variables(e.g. wind direction) less. (2) The objective forecast techniques are t he basis of the forecasters producing refined forecast products. For temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, forecaster forecast skill is a little higher than the objective techniques; and for rainfall and wind direction, forecaster and t he objective techniques have not much difference on forecast skill. Although the forecasters have the limited ability of modification for the objective techniqu es, but have the comprehensive differentiation ability of the best choice for two objective products. (3) The mean absolute error from 0h to 63h valid time of the temperature that forecaster produced is about 1.8℃, the forecast accuracy of tem perature when considering the absolute difference between forecast and observati on is less and equal 1℃ is around 43%, and forecast error has no evident change with increasing valid time. the mean absolute error of relative humidity (0～24 h) is about 10%, the forecast accuracy of relative humidity when considering the absolute difference between forecast and observation is less and equal 10% is a round 60%, and forecast error has evident change with increasing valid time. The mean absolute error of wind direction (0～63h) is about 20%, the forecast accur acy has no obvious change with increasing valid time; the mean absolute error of wind speed is between 0.8m·s-1 and 1.4m·s-1.
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