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CN 11-2282/P
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Archive > Volume 34 Issue 5 > 2008,34(5):14-19. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2008.05.003 Prev Next

The Applications of Stochastic Decisionmaking to Meteorological Service

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    Abstract:
    The applications of stochastic decisionmaking to meteorological service are in troduced primarily in two cases.The first case study shows that the meaning of s tochastic decisionmaking is uncertain when the probability of high impact weat her event is uncertain. In this case, the optimistic, pessimistic, or minimum re pentant value (MRV) decisionmaking can be chosen respectively according to the risk preferences of service. The second case shows that it is a certain meaning of stochastic decisionmaking when the probability of high impact weather even t is known. In this case, the best scheme could be setup up by the maximal expec tation value (ME) to provide meteorological service. Sensitivity analysis of sto chastic decisionmaking could be transformed as a mathematic question about calculating the critical probability and figured out d irectly by using graphical method.

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