ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Area Snowstorms in Northeast China
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Abstract:
The area snowstorm is a major severe weather in northeast China because it possi bly causes enormous losses. There are two area snowstorms in northeast China dur ing February 14-15 and March 4-6 of 2007. Their precipitation intensity and rang e are all greater than the historical records. By using basic data of precipitat ion, T213, surface and radiosonde observations, the synoptic situation of the tw o area snowstorms are analyzed. In addition, with the new generation numerical predi ction model GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System) , the two area snowstorms are numerically simulated, and the results are compare d withthe observational data. The results of analysis and simulation show that t he snowstorm during February 1415 is caused by eastbound trough over Mongolia (Menggu c yclone) and the snowstorm during March 46 is caused by northeastward vortex ov er Southwest China (Jianghuai cyclone) owing to the difference in the strength a nd moving route of cold air mass. In a sense the second is resemblance to a weat her situation of storm rainfall in the summer. In these processes, the major syn optic system not only is simulated by GRAPES model successfully, such as formati on and movement of southwest vortex, but the mesoscale convergence zone or cente r is simulated more precisely than observational analysis. But the simulation va lues of the precipitation are greater than the observations. The numerical resul ts show that GRAPES model has a good ability to simulate area snowstorms in North east China, and is of good reference to the operational forecasting.
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