ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 33 Issue 10 > 2007,33(10):15-22. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.10.003 Prev Next
Risk Assessment on Meteorological Attention Degree on the High Impact Weather Events of Xi'an General Public
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Abstract:
Abnormal changes of weather and climate have increasing influences on economic d evelopment and life of general public in China. It is very necessary to carry ou t an efficient meteorological risk assessment. Based on theory and methods of fu zzy maths and information diffusion，it integrates info of high impact weather e vents and dialing numbers of weather service phone (named 12121), the method of risk estimation probability of high impact weather events and meteorological att ention degrees of general public are given. Take Xi'an city as background，it ch ooses occurring days of five high impact weather events i. e, 〖JP2〗heat wave， thunderstorm， heavy shower，shower and scattered precipitation which are closely related to general public， and granted as risk resources, from 2004 to 2006 as statistical samples. The dia ling numbers of Xi'an weather service phone 12121 on the corresponding days are also gathered. Then，the risk estimation probabilities of high impact meteorolog ical events is estimated. Based on them and related demographic and telecommunic ation information，the meteorological attention degrees of general public at dif ferent grades are calculated. It is help for judging the influence, supplementin g the system of publicmeteorological services and improving the awareness of g eneral public to prevent meteorological-related risk as well.
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