ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Experimental Investigation on the Improved Prediction Models with AverageGeneration Functions
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Abstract:
In order to increase the forecasting accuracy, techniques of sh ortseries modeling and residual correction are improved and the prediction mod els of original series, shortseries and corresponding residual correction are developed on the basis of prediction technique of averagedgeneration functions. The used data are the precipitation data of Baishe City from June to August in 195120 06. The results show that the forecasting accuracy and precise of these improve d models have raise to some extent, especially the Ts of MGFAFM model is 25% hig her than MGFFM. The operational use of a consensus forecast with four models to the monthly rainfall amount is a good choice.
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