ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Statistical Forecast Model of Storm Surge on West Coast of the Bohai Sea
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Abstract:
Storm surge occurs frequently in the west coast of the Bohai Sea. Its frequency and disaster losses have shown an obvious tendency to increase sin ce 1990. Based on the tide data obtained at Huanghua harbor, the feature of storm surge in the wes t coast of the Bohai Sea was statistically analyzed by means of a combined techn ique of meteorological and marinehydrological sciences. The results show that the [JP] typhoon and strong cold air matching with cyclone are most synoptic systems wh ich result in the storm surge of Bohai Sea. The rising water with strong easterl y wind, together with astronomic tide, are the direct factors. Both the storm su r ge and the astronomic tide occur in the form of semidiurnal tide. On the basis o f above results, a forecast model of storm surge was set up, then the rising wat er value caused by typhoon or cold cyclones was calculated, the maximum tide is forecasted through superposition of astronomical tidal data. The forecast method is applied to the hindcast experiments of 7 storm surges that occurred in the w est coast of Bohai Sea, and the result is more satisfactory. The method is very useful for coastal stations.
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