ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Diagnostic Analysis of a False Heavy Rain Prediction
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Abstract:
The temporal and spatial distribution of the real time synoptic systems, the phy sics factors and the radar echo characteristics all indicated that a heavy rain process will occur in Wuhan singlestation and eastern Hubei province in 24 hou rs, but it is proved a false prediction. In order to find the reasons, some phys ics factors are diagnosed by using T213 numerical prediction products. Based on the physical variables, an analysis whether the heavy rain will occur in Wuhan s inglestation, and even in eastern Hubei Province is made. The results show tha t many physical factors did not consist with the forecast that a heavy rain proc ess will occur in the eastern Hubei province and Wuhan singlestation. For exam ple, without the energy front zone, the moisture front zone and the moisture con vergence, the rainfall synoptic system won't develop and intense. Thus the regional heavy rain won't occur. The vorticity advection of Wuhan sing lestation appears positive value at low level and negative value at high lev el. Such configurations have no dynamic effects. Vertical speed indicates that t here are downdraft at the whole upper layer of the singlesatation. All these p ositions cannot offer the important conditions for dynamic instability. Ra shows that moisture flux divergences are strong at upper troposphere of Wuhan single station and rf is in a low value. K index does not reach at 35℃ but dec rease day by day. Those physics values cannot trigger secondary circulation of s inglestation. So no heavy rains occur in Wuhan.
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