ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Thunderstorm Potential Trend Forecast Based on Convection Parameters
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Abstract:
In order to improve thunderstorm potential forecast ability, on the basis of sta tistics and analysis of thunderstormforming weather conditions in Anhui Provin ce, the convection parameters were selected from the T213 data during 2 003 to 2004 as forecast factors. By considering the seasonal variation character istics of the factors, the thunderstorm trend is forecasted with the discriminat ion analytical method and index accumulation method. The result indicates that t he latter method excels the former. Finally, the index accumulation method was u sed to forecast the thunderstorm from March to August in 2005, the result is tha t Critical Success Index (CSI) is 69.4%, Percent Of Doom (POD) is 89.5%, False Alarm Rate (FAR) is 24.4%, and the accuracy of regional forecast is b etter. Besides, regional hail and thunderstorm with strong wind during the testing period are all forecasted correctly. It is obvious that this method has better indicative significance to forecast the hail and thunders torm with strong wind.
Keywords:
convection parameters ; discrimination analytical method ; index accumulation meth od ; critical success index
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