ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 32 Issue 12 > 2006,32(12):16-22. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.12.003 Prev Next
Approach to Some Problems about Decision-making Forecasting from Investigation of 2005 Typhoon Numerical Prediction Errors
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Abstract:
The errors in landing location forecasting of 5 typhoons in 2005 with 9 numerical models were statistically analyzed,and the synoptic situations of each typhoon were also in-vestigated.Then,the ability of typhoon track prediction and the valid time satisfying strate-gic decision service were discussed,and some preliminary suggestions on decision-making forecasting of typhoon predication were proposed.The statistical analysis results show that the average 72?6h prediction error of typhoon track by the numerical models is larger,and the identical errors could happen when the synoptic situations had great change and adjust-ment.
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