Impact of ENSO on the Tropical Cyclones Affecting Guangdong
In order to discuss the effect of ENSO on the cyclone which endanger Guangdong, the relationships between Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and other variables of the tropical cyclones entering the Guangdong Area and ENSO are analyzed during the period of 1950—2003 by using statistical method. It is found that the response of the tropical cyclones affecting Guangdong to ENSO is very weak in year, and it shows significant seasonal differences. During the months from June to August, positive correlation can be found between the cyclones and Niňo3.4 indices, but negative correlation is obvious in October. Besides, the intensity, number and lifetime of the tropical cyclones occurring in October indicates greater negative correlation with ENSO. In other words, more cyclones are expected in La Nina years with longer life cycles, greater storm strengths and greater destructiveness, but fewer cyclones in El Nino years with shorter life cycles and less destructiveness. The result also shows that ACE index has a good clue to forecast the tropical cyclones affecting Guangdong.