ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Analyses and Verifications of T213 Rainfall Forecast from 2002 to 2005
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Abstract:
Based on the objective rainfall verification methods, the forecasting abilities of the numerical precipitation products of T213 were analyzed and verified using numerical precipitation forecast products of T213 and rainfall observation data of 400 stations. The results show that obvious temporal-spatial characteristics exist in threat score(TS) and bias score(B) of the rainfall forecast. The light rain′s TS is the largest and its B value is the smallest. The TS and the B value in summer is better than that in the other seasons. The highest TS and the lowest B value of the moderate and the heavy rain are both in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and then in South China. T213 rainfall forecast shows a good performance in heavy rain(snow) in Northeast and North China in spring, and in Meiyu period in the Yangtze River,and also in the autumn rainfall forecast in West China.
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