Simulation and Test of Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System for Heavy Rainfall in the Upper Reach of Changjiang River
Based on the PSU/NACR Mesoscale Model version MM5, mesoscale ensemble prediction system in the upper reach of Changjiang River is constructed by using different physics schemes. Ensemble prediction experiments and verifications for precipitation are made during 16 August to 30 September of 2004. The results show that the ensemble prediction can increase prediction accuracy of precipitation over 25mm. The experiment results of a heavy rainfall case occurring on 3 September indicate that the ensemble precipitation prediction mean might give a good clue to the starting, duration, and ending of heavy rainfall process, especially precipitation probability distribution more-than-50mm. The rainfall prediction has better guidance for area of heavy rainfall.